ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. The institution assessed poverty using the global benchmark of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen combined account for an additional 47% of those living below the $3 poverty line in the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations represent roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme impoverished population. Currently, about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
The situation for Pakistan’s poverty levels at the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies also worsened. The percentage of the population below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, roughly 48% of the population fell below this mark, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment attributed this decline to multiple shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic reforms, all contributing to the country’s worsening poverty metrics.
Poverty levels escalate after multiple economic shocks
A new household survey released earlier in 2026 prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures pushed MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive growth, Pakistan’s economy still faces high poverty rates. The latest forecast indicates GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Despite ongoing economic expansion, inflation is expected to outpace growth, with the 2027 forecast remaining above the 2026 estimate.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also stems from a statistical reclassification that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s statistical system shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not impact the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to Pakistan’s Finance Minister, explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, thereby influencing regional poverty share presentations.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is expected to contract by 2.1% after experiencing 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced setbacks due to conflict, disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Nonetheless, developing oil importers like Pakistan demonstrated relative resilience, with the outlook projecting 4.3% growth for this group in 2026. Rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across multiple countries.